How to Trade the US Unemployment Claims: A Comprehensive Guide
Introduction
The US Unemployment Claims report provides valuable insights into the labor market and the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits. This guide will share the exact strategy that professional traders use to take money from the 95% of losing retail traders. By following our step-by-step guide, you’ll learn how to level the playing field and effectively trade the Unemployment Claims report.
Understanding the US Unemployment Claims
The Unemployment Claims report, released weekly by the US Department of Labor, measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. It provides a timely snapshot of the labor market’s health and can influence economic policy and market sentiment.
Difference Between Unemployment Claims and Initial Jobless Claims
- Initial Jobless Claims: This metric specifically tracks the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It is a leading indicator of labor market health and provides insights into the pace of layoffs and the overall job market dynamics.
- Unemployment Claims: Often referred to as continuing claims, this metric measures the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits after their initial claim. It indicates the duration of unemployment and the ability of the job market to absorb unemployed individuals.
Why Unemployment Claims Matter
- Economic Indicator: The Unemployment Claims report is a crucial economic indicator as it reflects the number of people filing for unemployment benefits, providing insights into the labor market's health. A higher number of claims suggests a weakening labor market, while a lower number indicates strength.
- Influencing Policy: This report can influence the Federal Reserve's decisions, especially when it highlights trends in unemployment and economic health. The Fed monitors various economic indicators, including unemployment claims, to gauge the health of the economy and make informed decisions about monetary policy. Significant changes in claims can impact the Fed's stance on interest rates and other monetary measures.
- Market Sentiment: Unemployment claims impact market sentiment and investor confidence. A rising trend in claims can signal economic weakness, leading to negative market reactions. Conversely, a declining trend suggests economic strength, boosting investor confidence.
- Complementary Data: The Unemployment Claims report adds context and depth to other major reports like the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the Employment Situation report, helping traders form a more complete picture of labor market conditions. By analyzing unemployment claims alongside other key economic indicators, traders can develop a more comprehensive understanding of the economy's overall health and make more informed trading decisions.
Why Unemployment Claims Often Won’t Move the Market
- Frequent Release: The Unemployment Claims report is released weekly, which means its impact can be diluted over time. Markets may already have adjusted to the trends indicated by previous reports, leading to relatively muted reactions.
- Tier 2 Status: It’s not as prominent as high-impact reports like the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) or Consumer Price Index (CPI), so it usually doesn’t create significant market waves. Traders often prioritize these more influential economic indicators over weekly unemployment claims.
- Market Expectations: The market may already have priced in expectations based on other economic data and forecasts. If the unemployment claims come in line with or close to expectations, it might not cause significant market movements. Significant deviations from expectations are required to generate notable market reactions.
- Lagging Revisions: Initial unemployment claims readings can be subject to revisions in subsequent releases. These revisions can alter the initial market interpretation of the data. Traders may be cautious in reacting strongly to the initial release, knowing that revisions could change the overall assessment of labor market trends.
Trading Strategy for Unemployment Claims
Step 1: Analyze Federal Reserve Priorities
The first step is to understand what data points the Federal Reserve is currently focused on. If the Fed is focused on unemployment data, then the data point will have a significant amount of volatility because the Fed is in some way basing its interest rate decisions on that data release. To quickly determine the Fed’s current focus, you can use our Professional Economic Calendar, which includes a fundamental guide. This resource helps traders stay updated on the data points that matter most to the Fed, providing a strategic advantage.
Step 2: Use High-Low Expectation Forecasts
Professional traders rely on high-low forecasts to gauge market expectations accurately. Here’s a more detailed look at why these forecasts are crucial:
- Institutional Forecasts: Professional economic calendars include high and low estimates from top institutions. This broader range of expectations offers a more comprehensive picture of potential outcomes.
- Market Shocks: When a report exceeds the high estimate or falls below the low estimate, it’s a huge shock to markets because no analyst expected it. Such deviations often result in sharp market movements.
- Lightning Bolt Feature: This tool immediately signals a deviation above the high or below the low of analyst expectations. When a deviation occurs, the lightning bolt feature alerts traders instantly, allowing them to act without delay. The quick reaction to unexpected data can be the difference between a profitable trade and a missed opportunity.
Understanding High-Low Forecasts
Economic forecasts are derived from surveys of credible institutions, each providing their best estimate on upcoming data points. Retail calendars typically present the median of these estimates, which can be misleading. The median forecast doesn’t reveal the full range of expectations and, therefore, doesn’t indicate how surprising an actual data release is compared to the extremes of analysts’ projections. In contrast, professional economic calendars include both high and low estimates. This additional information shows the analysts’ expectations at the extreme ends of their projections. Great trading opportunities arise when data releases fall outside these high and low estimates, creating market shocks that move prices significantly.
Step 3 - Choosing the Most Volatile Instrument to Trade
Using insights from institutional reports, traders can select the most responsive currency pairs. For example, if USD/JPY is particularly sensitive to economic data as outlined by the City Economic Surprise Index and the Unemployment Claims report shows a significant deviation, this pair could be an ideal target for trading.
- City Economic Surprise Index: This report identifies currency pairs that react strongly to economic surprises. It highlights pairs that are sensitive to data deviations, helping traders focus on the most responsive markets.
- Risk-Reversal Report: This report shows market positioning, revealing a buildup of call or put options on certain currency pairs. Understanding these positions helps traders choose a pair that may have orders susceptible to getting liquidated upon the release of an economic data point.
- CFTC Report: This report details hedge funds' positions; if a lot of big players are long the EUR/USD but then data comes out in favor of the USD, some of those funds might have to unwind their positions leading to an outsized move. Good thing you didn’t trade the GBP/USD.
Trade Execution Steps
- Confirm Fed Focus: Ensure the Federal Reserve is currently emphasizing unemployment data. If unemployment is a primary focus, the Unemployment Claims report will have a higher likelihood of moving the market. Remember, if the central bank is focused on the data point, it’s because they are using that data point to make a decision on rates. This is the reason data points that are focused on cause volatility.
- Check Forecast Ranges: Before the data release, review the high and low forecast expectations for the event. Plan to trade only if the actual data significantly exceeds the high estimate or falls below the low estimate. This strategy ensures you act on genuinely surprising data and there will most likely be a follow-through reaction.
- Monitor Revisions: Check for any conflicting revisions in the data, as these can alter the initial market reaction. Make sure the primary release and any revisions align to support your trade.
- Enter Trade Promptly: Once you confirm the deviation, act quickly to enter your trade. Enter within the first 30 seconds. Speed is crucial, as market reactions to significant data surprises happen rapidly.
- Set Stop and Take Profit:
- Stop-Loss: Place your stop-loss below the low of the initial spike candle to protect against adverse movements.
- Take Profit: Aim for 15-30 pips for tier two events like Unemployment Claims, adjusting based on market conditions and volatility.
Managing the Trade
- After the Initial Run: Look for a shallow pullback around a 23% Fibonacci retracement or near support/resistance levels. This initial pullback can provide an opportunity to enter the trade again after you’ve taken a few points off the table after your first entry.
- Break Even: Move your stop-loss to break even as soon as possible to protect your gains. The stronger the release, the shallower the pullback. Moving to break even is essential because the market should want to buy off your S&R level and continue to the highs of the one-minute candle and break. If that doesn’t happen, something could be off.
- Reentries: If your initial position is stopped out at break even, consider reentering at deeper retracements, such as the 38% or 50% Fibonacci levels. Use nearby support and resistance levels to guide your reentry points.
Conclusion
While the US Unemployment Claims report may not always lead to significant market movements, understanding its nuances and using a professional trading strategy can help you capitalize on unexpected deviations. If you don’t have the tools mentioned above, try out our Professional Economic Calendar Package and use institutional tools to level the playing field. By following these steps, you’ll be well-prepared to trade the Unemployment Claims report effectively, leveraging the same strategies that professional traders use to profit from this economic data release.