Currency News

The Fed’s Interest Rate Decision Amidst Political Change: What’s at Stake? As the Federal Reserve gears up for its interest rate decision on Thursday, November 7, markets are widely anticipating a 25bps cut, which would bring the target range for the Federal Funds Rate to 4.50-4.75%. This move aligns with current money market pricing, reflecting … Read more

The Trump Trades: Market Implications of a Republican Win A Republican victory, virtually certain now,  in the US election could bring significant market shifts, as investors weigh potential changes in fiscal policy, trade, and regulation. Here’s a breakdown of how various assets might respond to a Republican-led administration: USD: Potential for Strengthening The U.S. dollar … Read more

Bank of England Rate Decision Outlook: Key Scenarios for the Pound The Bank of England (BoE) recently held interest rates steady on September 19, surprising markets with an 8-1 vote split in favor of a hold, a shift from the expected 7-2 split. This indicates growing support for maintaining rates, as the BoE expressed that … Read more

Dollar Weakness on Harris Momentum, Election Week Uncertainty Looms As we enter US election week, the USD has started with a softer tone, reflecting recent shifts in polling data that suggest a potential swing towards Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in critical battleground states. This follows last week’s weak payrolls data, weighed down by recent hurricanes … Read more

NFP and USD Sentiment Ahead of US Elections Today’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report comes at a critical time, just days before the US election. With the STIR market pricing a 96% chance of a Fed rate cut, this jobs data could significantly influence USD sentiment heading into next week. NFP Expectations This Afternoon The NFP … Read more

US Jobless Data, Core PCE, and Key Implications for Tomorrow’s NFP Today’s release of US jobless claims and Core PCE inflation data are pivotal in setting market expectations ahead of tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, especially as the Short-Term Interest Rate (STIR) market currently prices in a 96% probability of a Fed rate cut at … Read more

Trading the Yen: How U.S. Yields and Oil Prices Drive Yen Movements Understanding the Japanese Yen’s movements requires a close look at two critical drivers: U.S. 10-year yields and oil prices. Each of these has an established impact on Yen behavior due to Japan’s unique economic position and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policies. Here, … Read more

Intraday Opportunity: Yen Weakness Amid Political Uncertainty Japan’s recent election results have left the ruling coalition without a parliamentary majority, sparking fresh political and economic concerns. With the LDP and its junior partner securing only 209 of the 233 seats needed for a majority, Prime Minister Ishiba may need to seek additional alliances to form … Read more

Euro Pound: A Strategic Long Opportunity Amid Diverging Policies and UK Budget Risk Today’s stronger-than-expected German IFO data provides valuable insight, creating a promising foundation for potential EUR/GBP strength. The data exceeded expectations across key areas—business climate, current conditions, and expectations—which serves as a stabilizing signal for the euro amid an otherwise challenging European economic … Read more

Today’s Data to Watch 1. European PMIs from 08:15 (Starting with French Data) The euro has been weakening as ECB speakers express confidence that inflation is falling towards target, signaling potential rate cuts. With the USD hitting key resistance and ECB rhetoric driving EUR weakness, a surprise beat in European PMIs could push EUR/GBP higher. … Read more