Month: November 2024

ECB Cautious Amid Growth Concerns as December Rate Decision Looms In their last meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25bps rate cut but avoided signaling further reductions, emphasizing a data-dependent approach amid persistent concerns about slowing growth. Eurozone PMIs, weak German IFO data, and subdued inflation have kept the ECB on edge, with … Read more

US PCE Print Outlook: Key Scenarios for USD Movement Today’s US Core PCE print at 13:30 UK time will be critical in shaping the near-term outlook for the USD, as it is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and a key input for December rate decisions. Bearish USD Scenario: If Core PCE prints below 0.1% MoM … Read more

RBNZ Rate Decision: What to Watch for the NZD As the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) prepares to announce its monetary policy decision, markets are poised for significant moves in the NZD. Since the last meeting, inflation pressures have eased slightly, with annual CPI growth slowing to 2.2% (vs. 2.3% forecast). While tradables and … Read more

US PCE Print: Key Analysis with Bessent Context The Fed’s November 7 decision cut rates by 25bps to 4.50-4.75%, signaling progress toward the 2% inflation target but maintaining caution due to persistent inflation risks. While October labor data appeared weak, it was attributed to temporary factors like hurricanes and strikes, leaving core metrics stable. The … Read more

EUR/USD: Weak Eurozone PMIs Reinforce Sell Bias as 1.0450 Becomes Key Level The latest Eurozone PMI data paints a bleak picture for the eurozone economy, bolstering the case for further EUR/USD downside. With French, German, and Eurozone-wide PMIs coming in below expectations across the board, the euro remains under heavy pressure, and the bias remains … Read more

US Labor Market Data: Key Insights for Market Movement Today’s US labor data release will be closely watched as markets search for the next catalyst to drive USD direction. Recent labor market signals, combined with ongoing geopolitical and fiscal developments, make this an important moment for gauging economic resilience and the Federal Reserve’s potential next … Read more

RBNZ: What to watch for next week’s rate decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) October 9 decision to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50bps to 4.75% marked a significant step in its easing cycle. This dovish move, coupled with the expectation of another 50bps cut in November, underscores the central bank’s … Read more

UK CPI: Navigating the Bank of England’s Balancing Act The upcoming UK CPI release will be pivotal as markets assess the Bank of England’s delicate balancing act between managing inflation and supporting economic growth. Expectations are for headline inflation to tick back up to 2.2% year-on-year, driven by Ofgem’s 9.5% utility price cap increase and … Read more

Canadian CPI: A Test of the Bank of Canada’s Easing Trajectory Tuesday’s inflation data for Canada could significantly shape the near-term policy outlook for the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the broader trajectory of the Canadian dollar (CAD). With the BoC cutting rates by 50 basis points in October and shifting its focus firmly toward … Read more

UK GDP: Disappointing and Services Inflation Next Week Remains Key After a post-election lull, the Bank of England’s recent 25 bps rate cut to 4.75% underscores its “gradual approach” to easing, aiming to balance persistent inflation with slowing growth. The cut, decided with an 8-1 vote on November 7, reflects the BoE’s cautious but forward-looking … Read more