Interest Rate Probability Tracker
Rate expectations for the G8—built for trading
Turn what rate markets are pricing right now into trade decisions in the spot market. Our tracker translates short-term interest-rate pricing into clear probabilities, most-likely policy levels, curve shifts and updates for trade confirmation.
Meeting-by-meeting probabilities. Cross-bank views. Live updates.
What is a rate tracker—and why it matters
A rate tracker converts prices from the interest-rate markets (OIS/STIR) into meeting-by-meeting odds and most-likely policy rates. Because these prices are where views are actually traded, they can reveal the truth of expectations BEFORE they are priced into the spot market.
Why traders use it
Capture momentum when markets are wrong. Split expectations create the biggest moves when central banks surprise. The tracker identifies these high-conviction opportunities where positioning needs to unwind rapidly.
Validate your thesis with hard data. Cross-reference your FX, rates, and equity views against what the interest-rate markets are actually pricing. Use rate differentials to confirm carry trade setups and currency trends.
Trade retracements with confidence. Watch how CPI prints, employment data, and central bank speeches immediately shift rate expectations. This gives you objective confirmation to size up or step back from positions.
Trading with the Rate Tracker: strategies that work
Proven approaches that leverage objective rate expectations for FX, rates, and equity decisions:
Trade the Surprise Premium
Markets move most when expectations are split. If a meeting shows only 50-70% chance of one outcome, that means 30-50% of positioning will need to be unwound if the alternative happens. These are the events with the biggest 'surprise premium.' They can lead to great momentum trades post rate decision.
Intraday Trade Confirmation
The tracker translates central bank comments, economic data, and news headlines into rate pricing. This lets you see—in objective terms—how markets are repricing. Use it for confirmation around CPI, jobs, PMIs, and central-bank speeches. When the meeting strip shifts decisively, you have confirmation to scale into or step back from a trade.
Longer-Term Swing Bias
Beyond single events, the tracker shows week-to-week shifts in implied rates and central bank differentials. This lets you identify bigger-picture themes and trade them with conviction. Spot whether the market is steadily pricing hikes, cuts, or a flattening path. Compare across banks to see which currencies gain or lose yield advantage—core to FX carry. Align swing trades with the direction of rate differentials and curve momentum.
Rate Differentials: Your FX Edge
Compare policy paths across banks to see which currencies have the highest vs lowest expected yields—the backbone of carry. Over time, pairs that long high-rate currencies vs low-rate currencies tend to benefit from the yield pickup (all else equal). Our cross-bank view makes those differentials explicit so you can align pairs with the underlying cycle. Example: If the tracker shows the BoJ path nudging higher while the Fed path drifts lower, that's a narrowing USD-JPY differential—a potential headwind for USD/JPY.
The core modules (and how to use them)
Implied Interest-Rate Curve
The expected policy path for each bank (3–12 months+), with current vs. a week ago overlay. Reveals direction, pace, and conviction at a glance.
Implied Points (cumulative bps)
Total basis points of hikes/cuts implied between today and future dates. Compresses the curve into a single trackable number.
Most-Likely Change & Alternatives
The most-likely policy rate at the next meeting, its probability, and alternative paths. Focus on meetings with ≤60% odds for bigger moves.
Meeting Real-Time (near real time)
How many basis points are being priced right now into the upcoming decision. Use for intraday confirmation around data releases.
Objective expectations. Cross-bank views. Near real-time updates for action.
G8 coverage
We track the monetary authorities that drive the G8 macro regime
Federal Reserve
United States
European Central Bank
Euro area
Bank of Japan
Japan
Bank of England
United Kingdom
Bank of Canada
Canada
Reserve Bank of Australia
Australia
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
New Zealand
Swiss National Bank
Switzerland
Compare expected paths across banks in one consistent, trader-first interface.
Recent Trade Examples
Finding Trade Confirmation on a retracement
Finding Trade Confirmation on a retracement
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