The positive drivers for the Canadian Dollar have been growing as of late.
Economic data has (surprisingly) been to the upside. The RBC recently noted that Q1 growth is tracking close to 6% annualised. This is significantly higher than the BOC’s 2.5% projection.
Apart from that, Oil prices have finally broken out of their recent slumber and taken out key resistance between 1.60 and 1.62, after yet another larger-than-expected draw in EIA inventories.
On the central bank side, the BOC has been one of the least dovish central banks for the past couple of months now – scaling back some of its market functioning purchase programmes in the middle of March.
Positioning wise, the CAD is very close to neutral at the moment, so there’s nothing that should spark major concerns for the bulls.
So, with all of that said – and with all the positives in the mix – why has the CAD been failing to gain any real momentum over the past few weeks? Why is it tracking close to the bottom of the pack in a basket of major and EM currencies versus the Dollar?
We’ll answer those questions in our latest week ahead video.
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Highlights of the video:
00:19 – Current Baseline
04:19 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming week
08:48 – Sentiment Shifts & Trade Plan