The August NFP print has all but eroded the odds of getting an official tapering announcement from the Fed at the September meeting. However, the August NFP didn’t derail tapering completely, as an announcement is still expected in November.
Thus, the incoming jobs data will be critical to markets as the data will give us a hint on whether the Fed will choose a slow taper or a fast taper, which is far more important than whether the actual start date is December or January.
However, that type of speculation will only commence when we get the September NFP print on the 8th of October. Which means the September meeting might only give us a subtle hint of an announcement in November.
But don’t lose all hope for volatility though. With an updated Summary of Economic Projections at the meeting, another change in the median FOMC dot projections could make Powell’s life very difficult during the presser.
As always, more on this in our week ahead video.