RBA’s Last Chance To Signal Policy Change

Wednesday 27 November marks the start of the RBA’s blackout period before their December monetary policy meeting. Thus, this week will be their last chance to give markets a warning of any potential shift in their policy stance for the December meeting.
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Wednesday 27 November marks the start of the RBA’s blackout period before their December monetary policy meeting.

Thus, this week will be their last chance to give markets a warning of any potential shift in their policy stance for the December meeting.

According the ASX there is a 22% expectation of a rate cut in December. Markets are keen to find out whether the recent disappointing jobs report which followed the RBA’s previous meeting was enough to sway the RBA into cutting in December.

However, majority still sees the case for a no-change decision.

There are two important speeches to watch out for this week, one from RBA’s Debelle and the other from RBA Governor Lowe.

The topics of their speeches are about Employment and the other about Unconventional Monetary Policy. Both important topics and could prove to be very market moving.

We also have economic data to take note of which is Construction Work Done and Private Capex, both of which has been contracting in recent releases.

This week ahead video will explain our current bias for the Aussie Dollar and will also provide information to help you prepare for these upcoming risk events.

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Highlights of the video:

01:14 – Baseline context for the AUD

02:55 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming risk event

05:13 – Possible sentiment shifts

07:58 – Possible currency pairs to consider

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