The EURUSD currency pair has enjoyed a very healthy trend to the upside for the past couple of months, being driven higher by optimism from both fiscal and monetary easing from the European side and an ultra-dovish FED on the other.
The fundamental reasons for the Euro’s out-performance of the US Dollar has also been driven higher by the hopes of a global recovery, which is some parts have been expected to outperform the United States.
In terms of the Dollar itself, the bias in the longer-term will remain titled lower as long as the Federal Reserve try their very best to devalue to Dollar and keep rates lower for longer and as long as the hopes of reflation remains firm.
That means the bigger picture bias for the EURUSD remains titled to the upside.
However, there are a couple of factors that might see the pair lose a bit of steam in the very short-term, and if the timing and outcome is correct, it might provide us with a short-term contrarian opportunity in the pair.
02:33 – Baseline expectations for the upcoming risk event
04:25 – Sentiment Shifts & Trade Plan