Navega el Calendario Económico Como un Profesional 📅

Comprende Qué Eventos Mueven el Mercado y Cuándo Tradearlos

Video 1: Fundamentos del Calendario Económico

Domina los Componentes del Calendario:

  • • El calendario económico es tu sistema nervioso central para rastrear eventos que mueven el mercado
  • • Fecha y Hora: Los mercados anticipan los comunicados — tu trabajo es entender la configuración antes de que llegue
  • • País y Divisa: Cada evento etiqueta una divisa (ej. datos AUD = observa AUD/USD)
  • • Calificación de Impacto: Expectativas de volatilidad Baja/Media/Alta (pero el contexto puede anular estas)
  • • Nombre del Evento: IPC, PIB, NFP, Ventas Minoristas — qué parte de la economía mide
  • • Pronóstico (Consenso): Expectativa del mercado — tu base para la sorpresa
  • • Real: La cifra real que dispara la acción del precio

Características del Calendario Premium:

  • • Rangos de Pronóstico (Mín/Máx): Ve el rango de analistas — cifras fuera de este rango son verdaderas sorpresas
  • • Indicadores Visuales: Rayos, códigos de color, alertas pulsantes para resultados atípicos
  • • Velocidad en Tiempo Real: Las plataformas premium marcan sorpresas instantáneamente al publicarse
  • • Calendarios gratuitos (Forex Factory, Investing.com) vs. premium (Financial Source, Bloomberg)

Entendiendo la Frecuencia de Datos:

  • • MoM: Cambios Mes a Mes
  • • QoQ: Cambios Trimestre a Trimestre
  • • YoY: Cambios Año a Año
  • • WoW: Cambios Semana a Semana
  • • Los datos mensuales suelen ser más sensibles al mercado que las revisiones trimestrales (ej. Core PCE vs PIB)
  • • Datos frescos superan a datos famosos — la oportunidad importa

Los Detalles Críticos Que la Mayoría de Traders Pierden:

  • • Período de Referencia: Cuándo se recolectaron los datos (un desfase de 2 meses debilita la relevancia)
  • • Flash vs. Preliminar vs. Final: Los mercados reaccionan más al primer dato a menos que haya revisión brusca
  • • Revisiones: El dato anterior se actualiza — puede cambiar completamente la narrativa
  • • Ejemplo: El dato supera con 9.1% vs 9.0% pronóstico, PERO el anterior revisado de 10.3% a 10.1% = momento desacelerando
  • • Siempre revisa las revisiones entre paréntesis — remodelan la trayectoria

Video 2: Some for Show & Some for Dough

The Core Problem:

  • • Not all economic data is treated equally
  • • Some releases set off volatility spikes and move markets
  • • Others land with zero drama — they're just background noise
  • • Every data point tells part of the story, but only some move prices
  • • You need a repeatable process to separate signal from noise

The 4-Part Framework:

  • • Part 1: Where It Sits in the Economic Cycle
  • → Leading indicators change direction before the economy does (best for anticipation)
  • → Coincident indicators reflect current activity
  • → Lagging indicators confirm what already happened
  • → Leading data offers edge, but cross-check with coincident/lagging to avoid false alarms

Part 2: How Fresh Is the Data?

  • • Famous ≠ Relevant for your next trade
  • • Example: U.S. GDP is the gold standard, but by release time the market already knows the story
  • • GDP is based on data that leaked out over weeks (retail sales, PMIs, industrial production)
  • • Unless GDP wildly deviates, it rarely causes lasting moves
  • • Ask yourself: How close is this to real-time? How much new info does it add?
  • • Fresh data gets priced in fast — that's where the edge lives

Part 3: Cycle Relevance — Right Signal, Right Time

  • • What markets care about changes as the economic cycle evolves
  • • At the top: traders obsess over signs of slowing
  • • During contraction: everyone hunts for green shoots of recovery
  • • In the middle phase: data might matter less unless it's way off expectations
  • • Example: Weak PMI during a turning point = market panic. Same PMI during stable expansion = shrug
  • • Always ask: What cycle phase are we in? What's the market focused on? Will this move the needle?

Part 4: Signal Strength — Is It Clean or Noisy?

  • • Some indicators are well-structured, reliable, and clean
  • • Others are messy, volatile, vulnerable to revision — can flash bullish then bearish with no real change
  • • Even good indicators can disagree temporarily (normal rhythm)
  • • But when two leading indicators point opposite directions = dig deeper
  • • Red flags: Seasonal adjustments, base effects, supply chain distortions, policy noise
  • • Recognizing noise saves you from chasing phantom signals
  • • Gives you confidence to hold your ground when things look choppy

Live Risk Event Recaps

NFP October 4th, 2024

CAD Employment 11th of October, 2024

AUD Employment Change 16th of October, 2024

US ISM December 4th, 2024

UK GDP December 13th, 2024

UK Employment December 17th, 2024

NFP January 10th, 2025

EUR PMI January 24th, 2025

CAD Employment February 7th, 2025

UK GDP February 16th, 2025

US NFP March 16th, 2025

CAD CPI May 20th, 2025

BoE Rate Decision August 7th, 2025

CAD Employment Change September 5th, 2025

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