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Economic Calendar Basics & How to Know When News Is Important

Video 1: Economic Calendar Basics

• The economic calendar is your central nervous system for tracking market-moving events
• Date and Time: Markets anticipate releases — your job is to understand the setup before it arrives
• Country and Currency: Every event tags a currency (e.g., AUD data = watch AUD/USD)
• Impact Rating: Low/Medium/High volatility expectations (but context can override these)
• Event Name: CPI, GDP, NFP, Retail Sales — what part of the economy it measures
• Forecast (Consensus): Market's expectation — your baseline for surprise
• Actual: The real print that triggers price action

• Forecast Ranges (Min/Max): See the analyst spread — prints outside this range are true surprises
• Visual Cues: Lightning bolts, color codes, pulsing alerts for outlier results
• Real-time Speed: Premium platforms flag surprises instantly as they hit
• Free calendars (Forex Factory, Investing.com) vs. premium (Financial Source, Bloomberg)

• MoM: Month-over-Month changes
• QoQ: Quarter-over-Quarter changes
• YoY: Year-over-Year changes
• WoW: Week-over-Week changes
• Monthly data often more market-sensitive than quarterly revisions (e.g., Core PCE vs GDP)
• Fresh data beats famous data — timeliness matters

• Reference Period: When the data was collected (2-month lag weakens relevance)
• Flash vs. Preliminary vs. Final: Markets react most to first print unless sharp revision
• Revisions: Prior print gets updated — can completely change the narrative
• Example: Print beats at 9.1% vs 9.0% forecast, BUT prior revised down from 10.3% to 10.1% = momentum slowing
• Always check revisions in parentheses — they reshape the trajectory

• Part 1: Where It Sits in the Economic Cycle
→ Leading indicators change direction before the economy does (best for anticipation)
→ Coincident indicators reflect current activity
→ Lagging indicators confirm what already happened
→ Leading data offers edge, but cross-check with coincident/lagging to avoid false alarms

• Famous ≠ Relevant for your next trade
• Example: U.S. GDP is the gold standard, but by release time the market already knows the story
• GDP is based on data that leaked out over weeks (retail sales, PMIs, industrial production)
• Unless GDP wildly deviates, it rarely causes lasting moves
• Ask yourself: How close is this to real-time? How much new info does it add?
• Fresh data gets priced in fast — that's where the edge lives

• What markets care about changes as the economic cycle evolves
• At the top: traders obsess over signs of slowing
• During contraction: everyone hunts for green shoots of recovery
• In the middle phase: data might matter less unless it's way off expectations
• Example: Weak PMI during a turning point = market panic. Same PMI during stable expansion = shrug
• Always ask: What cycle phase are we in? What's the market focused on? Will this move the needle?

• Some indicators are well-structured, reliable, and clean
• Others are messy, volatile, vulnerable to revision — can flash bullish then bearish with no real change
• Even good indicators can disagree temporarily (normal rhythm)
• But when two leading indicators point opposite directions = dig deeper
• Red flags: Seasonal adjustments, base effects, supply chain distortions, policy noise
• Recognizing noise saves you from chasing phantom signals
• Gives you confidence to hold your ground when things look choppy